🚀 Space Industry Fears Monopolization and Orbital Debris

According to a study by European researchers from the Polytechnic University of Turin and the University of Cambridge, if current trends persist, the price of sending cargo into space could fall by nearly the same proportion by 2040. However, experts warn that future progress is threatened by the accumulation of space debris and acute market monopolization.

Doubling Payloads and the Economics of Falcon 9

As part of the study, researchers constructed the largest launch registry in history, covering 4,405 launches and over 330 launch vehicle configurations from the US, Russia, China, India, Japan, and other nations between 1960 and 2025. The defining feature of this new methodology is that it accounts for the cumulative payload mass delivered by rockets over their entire operational lifecycles, rather than relying solely on the raw unit cost of the launch vehicles.

According to the authors’ calculations (adjusted to 2024 dollars), the average cost to deliver 1 kg of payload into Earth orbit plummeted from $87,000 in 1960 to $3,900 in 2025. The mathematical model revealed that for every doubling of cumulative global launch industry payload, the average cost per kilogram decreases by 21.2%.

“We highlight two main drivers behind this process. First, the end of the Cold War and the transition to the ‘New Space’ paradigm, which envisioned widespread commercial utilization of orbit. Second, our data registers a sharp acceleration in cost reduction following the maiden flights of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and the practical deployment of reusable launch vehicle technology,” emphasized study co-author Alessio Terzi, Associate Professor at Cambridge University’s Department of Public Policy.

Researchers estimate that if the current trajectory holds, the average delivery cost per kilogram will drop to $1,600 by 2030 and hit $300 by 2040.

Monopolization Risks and Kessler Syndrome

Despite these optimistic extrapolations, the authors of the report stress that past success does not guarantee automatic future price declines. The industry faces two systemic risks that could slow or even reverse this pricing trend:

• Low Earth Orbit Congestion. The overcrowding of orbital regimes with space debris traveling at velocities around 27,000 km/h creates a persistent risk of cascading collisions. Financial losses from damaged spacecraft and the operational necessity for frequent collision-avoidance maneuvers will inevitably bake higher insurance premiums and operating overhead into launch prices.
• Single-Player Dominance. Today, Elon Musk’s SpaceX accounts for approximately 75% of all payload mass launched globally. Experts note that a market participant with such a dominant share develops direct economic incentives to engage in monopoly pricing, which could artificially constrain payload volume growth and halt the decline in unit launch costs.