🎦 Loneliness in a Predator-Free Forest

Producers, distributors, and top regulatory executives, moderated by Nadezhda Motina, President of Arna Media, reviewed the outcomes of several years operating in isolation, assessed the risks of unauthorized theatrical distribution, and attempted to forecast whether the domestic industry is prepared for a hypothetical return of the Hollywood majors.

Box Office, Attendance, and the Fairy-Tale Tilt

Fedor Sosnov, Executive Director of the Russian Cinema Fund, called for assessing the dynamics of the Russian market within the context of the global theatrical exhibition crisis that began during the pandemic (attendance in the US and France remains roughly 40% below pre-pandemic levels). Box office receipts in Russia lag behind 2019 levels by approximately 44%, though the decline in admissions is significantly smaller. Meanwhile, the volume of films produced with Cinema Fund support has nearly tripled in recent years, with the coming year expected to mark a peak in overall releases.

However, this quantitative growth has exposed systemic vulnerabilities:

• Uneven Release Schedule: The industry urgently requires a steady flow of event releases rather than relying solely on rare, massive blockbusters like Cheburashka.
• Genre Imbalance: As Pavel Vereshchagin, Head of Distribution at Central Partnership, noted, the market is saturated with family-oriented content: “Right now, it’s fairy tales, fairy tales, and nothing but fairy tales.” The industry must actively develop horrors, detective stories, and thrillers to draw adult audiences.
• Summer Season Slump: Distributors and directors highlighted the dire state of the summer box office (particularly following the release of The Last Warrior: Kolobok), urging the Cinema Fund to revise its scheduling and release allocation mechanisms.

Billions in the Gray Zone and the Marketing Factor

Session participants placed special emphasis on unauthorized theatrical screenings. According to BK Media, revenue from the shadow sector reached 4.1 billion rubles (11.6% of the total market) in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, Ksenia Boletskaya, Director of Industry Relations at Yandex, estimated gray-market theatrical box office returns to be between 1.5 and 2 billion rubles.

Boletskaya stressed that the departure of official distributors dealt a severe blow to the industry’s primary driver: marketing. Without large-scale promotional campaigns, general audiences simply remain unaware of global premieres and lose interest in them. Nevertheless, pirated content has begun aggressively penetrating the digital realm and streaming platforms, creating a pressing need for unified industry standards.

Legal Competition and the Hypothetical Return of the Majors

Experts differed on whether the absence of Western competitors ultimately benefits the industry. Anton Malyshev, Executive Director of the Kinoprime Foundation, expressed doubt regarding the long-term value of a sterile ecosystem: “I’m not sure it’s a good thing when predators suddenly vanish from the forest.” He noted that the quality of Russian commercial cinema was originally forged through fierce competition with Hollywood.

Summing up the discussion, participants agreed that combating piracy must go hand in hand with building a civilized marketplace. Pavel Vereshchagin emphasized that the potential return of Hollywood studios is inevitable, and the primary objective for Russian cinema is to face that moment in a position where audiences choose domestic films for their quality and appeal, rather than a lack of alternatives.