📆 How Can the Russian Film Market Overcome Its "New Year Imbalance"?

Panel moderator Fyodor Sosnov, CEO of the Cinema Fund, highlighted the industry’s central issue: a hyper-saturated first ten days of January paired with low theater occupancy across the remaining 355 days of the year. This seasonal shift forces producers to fight over the same “New Year’s pie,” leaving theater operators and audiences starving for major releases during other periods.

The New Year Model and Alternative Windows

Konstantin Ernst described the fierce battle for January slotting as destructive. In his view, the box office can sustain the simultaneous release of two or three major titles, but the system breaks down when five or six tentpoles collide at once. Reflecting on the success of Day Watch, which originally launched the tradition of New Year premieres, Ernst noted that today’s holiday calendar is severely overloaded. As viable alternatives, he suggested cultivating key release windows around the May holidays, late April, and the turn of October into November.

Sergei Selyanov, Chairman of the Board of APkit and head of CTB Film Company, confirmed the practical merits of shifting release dates. The film Wish of the Fairy Fish was pushed to autumn due to intense holiday competition, where it subsequently achieved a successful theatrical run. Selyanov believes the market requires 12 evenly distributed “hot spots” throughout the year, populated by a diverse mix of genres—including musicals, sci-fi, adventure, and historical epics.

The Audience Habit Problem and Navigating Summer Releases

Anton Zlatopolsky, First Deputy Director General of VGTRK, emphasized that the industry’s primary objective must be expanding the overall moviegoing population. While the United States generates 800 million ticket sales annually for a population of 350 million, Russia’s total cinema engagement reaches approximately 115 million ticket sales out of 145 million residents.

Unlocking the summer season remains the toughest challenge. Box office returns for Serf 3 and The Last Warrior: Gingerbread Man fell short of expectations, though they set an important precedent for summer scheduling. Denis Zhalinsky, General Producer at Yellow, Black and White, attributed this hesitation to decades of ingrained audience habits centered on watching Hollywood blockbusters during the summer. Shifting this consumer behavior within a single season is impossible, and high marketing risks (ranging from 150 to 200 million rubles per campaign) frequently deter producers. Zhalinsky proposed supporting summer releases not only through direct subsidies, but also by granting access to state-backed out-of-home and media advertising resources.

Distributor Practices and the Exhibition Sector’s View

Pavel Vereshchagin, Distribution Director at Central Partnership, cited a successful example of unconventional scheduling: the wartime action-mystery August. The film was released on September 25 instead of the traditional Victory Day window on May 9. As a result, the title played through December, accumulating 1.6 billion rubles driven by strong word-of-mouth. Vereshchagin identified school holidays, Defender of the Fatherland Day (February 23), and International Women’s Day (March 8) as other promising windows, emphasizing that high-quality content can perform at any time of year.

Olga Zinyakova, CEO of the Karo cinema chain, pointed out that the market critically lacks a stable “middle class” of mid-budget films consistently grossing around 300 million rubles. Addressing unauthorized screenings, Zinyakova stated that Karo maintains a strict policy against exhibiting pirated films, focusing instead on developing alternative programming (“Karo/Art”) centered on special screenings and festival premieres.

Market Consensus and the Blueprint for Success

Concluding the discussion, Anatoly Maksimov, CEO of Cinema Direction, stressed that the industry needs to self-regulate: if producers and distributors can agree on structured release calendar rules, the state can formalize them through regulatory frameworks.

Fyodor Sosnov summarized the key formula for successfully opening up non-traditional release windows: a strong film + effective marketing + consolidated promotional support. For the film industry to achieve long-term sustainability, this chain must operate on a consistent basis.