📊 Standard Metrics Underestimate TV's Impact

Experts from leading advertising groups and analytics firms (ADV, Media Instinct Group, NMi Group, DPG Russia, Starlink, Mediascope, among others) examine why conventional attribution models distort the true picture and how the TV industry is adapting its buying and analytical methods to meet modern business demands.

The Echo Effect

The primary shortcoming of classic performance models is their reliance on short-term conversion windows. As Kantar and Nielsen highlight, traditional marketing mix models capture instant returns well but overlook long-term brand equity. Meanwhile, Nielsen data demonstrates that the delayed impact of reach media can double the overall return on investment (ROI).

A study by Thinkbox and Tapestry Research confirms the durability of TV exposure: over an 8-week tracking period, purchase intent among viewers of TV ads declined by just 14%, compared to a 24% drop for online video and 26% for social media. Furthermore, including TV in the media mix enhanced the conversion potential of other channels by an average of 26%.

Variations in the decision-making cycle also dictate specific dynamics. According to estimates by DPG Russia, while the journey from ad exposure to purchase takes around 10 minutes for a chocolate bar, it stretches over several months in real estate or automotive sectors. Turning off a TV flight does not lead to an immediate drop in sales due to accumulated brand equity—often creating a false illusion among advertisers that reach-based investments are ineffective.

The Last-Click Illusion

Last-click attribution models systematically skew media contributions. According to research by WARC and Analytic Partners, last-touch attribution overestimates the impact of paid search by up to 190%, while underestimating the actual effectiveness of brand TV by 90%.

As highlighted by Starlab (Starlink Group), approximately 30% of paid search clicks are driven directly by video and television exposure. Search engines do not create demand from scratch; they merely capture and convert audiences nurtured by broad broadcast coverage. In a joint study by Okkam and MTS Travel analyzing end-to-end user journeys, performance tools yielded higher immediate conversion rates, but preliminary exposure to TV ads generated the highest absolute number of final target actions.

Transition to a Digital Mindset

To meet advertiser expectations, television is adopting the playbook of digital environments:

• New Buying Metrics. In 2026, National Advertising Alliance (NRA) is launching a dedicated offering for small and medium-sized businesses, shifting from traditional GRP-based buying to cost-per-thousand impressions (CPM), a standard model for the digital market.
• Cross-Device Identification in Smart TV / CTV. User authentication on Smart TVs allows advertisers to tie TV impressions directly to specific CRM identifiers (such as phone numbers) and track the path via Conversion API all the way to an actual purchase, app installation, or lead submission.
• Performance Synchronization. Across e-commerce, retail, fintech, and telecom categories, companies record a multi-fold drop in cost per acquisition (CPA) for branded search queries during active TV flights. Additionally, incorporating QR codes and dynamic links in commercials allows brands to measure immediate audience response to specific TV airings.

Experts agree: the principal objective of modern media planning is moving away from isolated channel reporting toward cross-channel attribution and econometric modeling. TV does not compete on winning the lowest single conversion cost; rather, it expands business capacity and scale, establishing the baseline foundation upon which all performance channels operate.